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Promotion: How many points do we need?

Just your normal drivel.

Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby LasseM » 07 Feb 2012, 14:11

Looking at the last 10 season in the Championship it has taken:
...between 1,76 (81) to 2,22 (102) points pr. game to win the league.
...between 1,72 (79) to 2,00 (92) points pr. game to win automatic promotion.
...between 1,52 (70) to 1,63 (75) to reach the play offs.

We need 36 points from the last 17 games to pass the 92 points that's the highest that's been needed in the last 10 years for an automatic promotion, but I'm curious... how many points do you think we'll need:
A) To win the league?
B) To win automatic promotion?

/Lasse


Championship 2011/2012 - as it stands:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 West Ham 29 17 5 7 56
2 Southampton 29 15 7 7 52
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Cardiff 29 13 11 5 50
4 Blackpool 29 13 9 7 48
5 Birmingham 28 13 8 7 47
6 Middlesbrough 29 12 11 6 47
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Hull 28 14 4 10 46
8 Reading 28 13 6 9 45

Pr. game -
League leaders: 1,93
That other automatic promotion spot: 1,79
Points to win a play off spot: 1,62

Championship 2010/2011:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Queens P.R. 46 24 16 6 88
2 Norwich 46 23 15 8 84
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Swansea 46 24 8 14 80
4 Cardiff 46 23 11 12 80
5 Reading 46 20 17 9 77
6 Nottingham F. 46 20 15 11 75
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Leeds 46 19 15 12 72
8 Burnley 46 18 14 14 68

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 1,91
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,83
Points to win a play off spot: 1,63

Championship 2009/2010:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Newcastle 46 30 12 4 102
2 West Bromwich 46 26 13 7 91
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Nottingham F. 46 22 13 11 79
4 Cardiff 46 22 10 14 76
5 Leicester 46 21 13 12 76
6 Blackpool 46 19 13 14 70
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Swansea 46 17 18 11 69
8 Sheffield U. 46 17 14 15 65

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,22
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,98
Points to win a play off spot: 1,52

Championship 2008/2009:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Wolverhampton 46 27 9 10 90
2 Birmingham 46 23 14 9 83
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Sheffield U. 46 22 14 10 80
4 Reading 46 21 14 11 77
5 Burnley 46 21 13 12 76
6 Preston 46 21 11 14 74
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Cardiff 46 19 17 10 74
8 Swansea 46 16 20 10 68

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 1,96
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,80
Points to win a play off spot: 1,61

Championship 2007/2008:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 West Bromwich 46 23 12 11 81
2 Stoke 46 21 16 9 79
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Hull 46 21 12 13 75
4 Bristol City 46 20 14 12 74
5 Crystal Palace 46 18 17 11 71
6 Watford 46 18 16 12 70
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Wolverhampton 46 18 16 12 70
8 Ipswich 46 18 15 13 69

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 1,76
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,72
Points to win a play off spot: 1,52 (+ goal difference)

Championship 2006/2007:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Sunderland 46 27 7 12 88
2 Birmingham 46 26 8 12 86
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Derby 46 25 9 12 84
4 West Bromwich 46 22 10 14 76
5 Wolverhampton 46 22 10 14 76
6 Southampton 46 21 12 13 75
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Preston 46 22 8 16 74
8 Stoke 46 19 16 11 73

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 1,91
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,87
Points to win a play off spot: 1,63

Championship 2005/2006:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Reading 46 31 13 2 106
2 Sheffield U. 46 26 12 8 90
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Watford 46 22 15 9 81
4 Preston 46 20 20 6 80
5 Leeds 46 21 15 10 78
6 Crystal Palace 46 21 12 13 75
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Wolverhampton 46 16 19 11 67
8 Coventry 46 16 15 15 63

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,30
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,96
Points to win a play off spot: 1,63

Championship 2004/2005:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Sunderland 46 29 7 10 94
2 Wigan 46 25 12 9 87
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Ipswich 46 24 13 9 85
4 Derby 46 22 10 14 76
5 Preston 46 21 12 13 75
6 West Ham 46 21 10 15 73
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Reading 46 19 13 14 70
8 Sheffield U. 46 18 13 15 67

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,04
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,89
Points to win a play off spot: 1,59

Championship 2003/2004:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Norwich 46 28 10 8 94
2 West Bromwich 46 25 11 10 86
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Sunderland 46 22 13 11 79
4 West Ham 46 19 17 10 74
5 Ipswich 46 21 10 15 73
6 Crystal Palace 46 21 10 15 73
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Wigan 46 18 17 11 71
8 Sheffield U. 46 20 11 15 71

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,04
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,87
Points to win a play off spot: 1,59

Championship 2002/2003:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Portsmouth 46 29 11 6 98
2 Leicester 46 26 14 6 92
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Sheffield U. 46 23 11 12 80
4 Reading 46 25 4 17 79
5 Wolverhampton 46 20 16 10 76
6 Nottingham F. 46 20 14 12 74
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Ipswich 46 19 13 14 70
8 Norwich 46 19 12 15 69

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,13
Points to win automatic promotion: 2,00
Points to win a play off spot: 1,61

Championship 2001/2002:
Plac. Team Games Won Drawn Lost Points
1 Manchester City 46 31 6 9 99
2 West Bromwich 46 27 8 11 89
------------------------------------------------------------
3 Wolverhampton 46 25 11 10 86
4 Millwall 46 22 11 13 77
5 Birmingham 46 21 13 12 76
6 Norwich 46 22 9 15 75
------------------------------------------------------------
7 Burnley 46 21 12 13 75
8 Preston 46 20 12 14 72

Pr. game -
Points to win the league: 2,15
Points to win automatic promotion: 1,93
Points to win a play off spot: 1,63 (+ goal difference)
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Bruno » 07 Feb 2012, 16:05

I remember Beezer saying, from the beginning of the season, that 2 points per match would ensure us a safe promotion. I do believe he's going for that once more. I can see that, in other years, where competition has been tougher (a bit like this season), we've seen the ration drop a bit. But it's still very near the 1.9 to 2 points per match.

So, I think, because of the way matches have been a little less predictable and the league is, this time around, more evened out, if we maintain this 1.93 we'll be fine. That comes up to something between 92 and 93 points. I truly believe that'll be more than enough.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby LasseM » 07 Feb 2012, 16:22

I think it's really difficult to predict, but I got a feeling that if we get around 82-85 (26-29 more) points it will be enough for an automatic promotion, and if we get 92+ (2 points pr. game) it will be enough for the winning the league... but it's very hard to predict! There's still a lot of season defining games out there for the top teams.

The really difficult one is how much it will take to win the league. Maybe one team just suddenly start to take of and never look back...

I would also still have an eye for Birmingham or maybe especially Blackpool in regards to a spot for automatic promotion.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby esoteric_art » 07 Feb 2012, 16:37

I think we need another 36 point to take us up to the 92 mark as stated by FS and others the 2 points per game normally = automatic promotion its difficult to really say what will win you the leauge and what will get you 2nd spot but i think 92 would def be at least 2nd and anything over the 100 mark would likely mean top spot.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby IronDane » 07 Feb 2012, 22:27

With the way things are going I think we only need like 82-86. I have no doubt we will get automatically promoted anymore and how wonderful a feeling is that ? ;) I even think we are going to go on a rampage with our new players and rip some big holes in other teams' goalscoring records !
Up The Irons !!!
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby HammerDownUnder » 07 Feb 2012, 22:50

Our goals scored column is not very healthy, we definitely need improvement there.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Jo. » 08 Feb 2012, 01:39

A slight tangent........... but how much nicer is this type of question than "how many more points do we need to save us from relegation"?
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby LasseM » 08 Feb 2012, 09:10

Jo. wrote:A slight tangent........... but how much nicer is this type of question than "how many more points do we need to save us from relegation"?


Spot on! :)

IronDane wrote:With the way things are going I think we only need like 82-86. I have no doubt we will get automatically promoted anymore and how wonderful a feeling is that ? ;) I even think we are going to go on a rampage with our new players and rip some big holes in other teams' goalscoring records !


It can still go wrong. Ones season isn't any better than the next few games and we only need a bad patch and two teams around us to pick up pace for us to get a long nose...

But yeah, it's looking good, and I think you're right about a low 80'es amount of points for automatic promotion.

HammerDownUnder wrote:Our goals scored column is not very healthy, we definitely need improvement there.


True, points is most important by far, but we need to score more goals and would be nice to get a bigger plus there.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Blakey » 11 Feb 2012, 06:46

The only way to guarantee automatic promotion is to win every game.

Speculation on how many points will be needed is pointless, you might as well apply the Chaos theory and predict the top 3
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby mambo » 11 Feb 2012, 10:13

After several days of intense scrutiny of the history of the championship, nights of studying fixtures and likely outcomes, wearing my digits to the bone punching numbers into my calculator, I have come up with a definitive answer to your question, Lasse....

We will need one more point ( or the same amount with a better goal difference ) than the team that finishes in third position for automatic promotion and one more point ( or the same amount with a better goal difference ) than the team that finishes second to actually win the league.

I hope this helps, Lasse, and you appreciate my efforts ;)
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby RichB » 11 Feb 2012, 10:41

Blakey wrote:The only way to guarantee automatic promotion is to win every game.
Not so. If you won every game except one which you drew you would still have more points than any other team because the next highest possibilty would be for them to have won all games except two which they could have lost one & drawn one. i.e. the reverse fixtures with you.
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Blakey » 11 Feb 2012, 17:05

RichB wrote:
Blakey wrote:The only way to guarantee automatic promotion is to win every game.
Not so. If you won every game except one which you drew you would still have more points than any other team because the next highest possibilty would be for them to have won all games except two which they could have lost one & drawn one. i.e. the reverse fixtures with you.


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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby RichB » 11 Feb 2012, 20:10

:D Sorry, I was thinking about it as a mathematical conundrum. The sort of thing they do on 'Countdown' Humm... perhaps I was just thinking of Carol Vorderman... ;)
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Nooly Nearly » 12 Feb 2012, 22:45

I just know it will be more points than what the team currently has.

I think there are any from 8 or 9 teams that will probably be in with a chance of automatic promotion. We are no better or worse than a fair few teams in this division. It's just like predicting the National Lottery numbers.
Sadly same old false dawn if only we played as well as we bull shit
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby LasseM » 23 Apr 2012, 22:11

We have to go back to 2001/2002 for 86 points not being enough for an automatic promotion. Let's hope we win against Hull and that the statistic still says 2001/2002 as the last time - the year that Wolves came in third with 86 behind WBA with 89 and ManC with 99 points...
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby Bruno » 23 Apr 2012, 22:30

Well... we're West Ham. We did get relegated with 42 points, init... anything can happen to us. :)
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Re: Promotion: How many points do we need?

Postby LasseM » 23 Apr 2012, 22:32

The same year as my Danish team broke the record in Denmark for going down with the highest number of points ever too...

Bad year!
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